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5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 73¢ · $22K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

-$62.68

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 72.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares17,874

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares32,814

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yen4u	Noavg 67.1¢	$6.8K	$7.3K	+$545.43	86% 875-141 (1016)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 29.3¢	$5.9K	$6.6K	-$483.32	40% 2715-4061 (6776)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 64¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$371.88	57% 771-586 (1357)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 67¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$127.05	38% 1794-2924 (4718)
WH whigCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$180.19	$1.4K	-$434.36	59% 410-281 (691)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$856	$577.5	-$278.5	61% 1201-769 (1970)
GollumGekko	Noavg 54¢	$410.59	$521.53	+$110.94	68% 2085-979 (3064)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$390	$366.67	-$23.33	57% 1119-851 (1970)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 64.5¢	$346.62	$248.53	+$18.22	17% 1116-5546 (6662)
AL alex20011ARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$382.26	$205	-$21.86	42% 3695-5102 (8797)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$139.4	$148.63	+$9.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.4¢	$76.71	$56.38	-$31.09
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$281.25	$166.46	-$0.02	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.7¢	$114.9	$132.86	+$16.09
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.1¢	$46.59	$33.6	-$16.11
TalophexCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$68	$55	-$13	91% 948-95 (1043)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$32.55	$28.88	-$3.68	59% 995-698 (1693)

yen4u

Invested

$6,796.7

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$545.43

Record

86%

875-141 (1016)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,923.35

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$483.32

Record

40%

2715-4061 (6776)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$2,800

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$371.88

Record

57%

771-586 (1357)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$1,547.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$127.05

Record

38%

1794-2924 (4718)

whigCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$434.36

Record

59%

410-281 (691)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$856

Value

$577.5

PnL

-$278.5

Record

61%

1201-769 (1970)

GollumGekko

Invested

$410.59

Value

$521.53

PnL

+$110.94

Record

68%

2085-979 (3064)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$390

Value

$366.67

PnL

-$23.33

Record

57%

1119-851 (1970)

WarriorH

Invested

$346.62

Value

$248.53

PnL

+$18.22

Record

17%

1116-5546 (6662)

alex20011ARB<$100

Invested

$382.26

Value

$205

PnL

-$21.86

Record

42%

3695-5102 (8797)

Both legs:

No$139.468¢+$9.22

Yes$76.7137.4¢-$31.09

ghorrockARB<$100

Invested

$281.25

Value

$166.46

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

Both legs:

No$114.962.7¢+$16.09

Yes$46.5938.1¢-$16.11

TalophexCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68

Value

$55

PnL

-$13

Record

91%

948-95 (1043)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.55

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$3.68

Record

59%

995-698 (1693)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.