Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (87%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 14¢ · $78 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$78.3
-$9.99
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $55.98 | $50.99 | -$4.98 | — 0-10 (10) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $18.76 | $15.93 | -$2.84 | — 1-9 (10) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $8.4 | $6 | -$2.4 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $3.97 | $4.28 | +$0.3 | — 9-2 (11) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $1.18 | $1.11 | -$0.07 | — 3-6 (9) |
Invested
$55.98
Value
$50.99
PnL
-$4.98
Record
—
0-10 (10)
Invested
$18.76
Value
$15.93
PnL
-$2.84
Record
—
1-9 (10)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$6
PnL
-$2.4
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$3.97
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.3
Record
—
9-2 (11)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
$1.11
PnL
-$0.07
Record
—
3-6 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.