Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$7.5K
-$332.53
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 wagwanshawty | Yesavg 99.8¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | -$21.05 | — 4-5 (9) |
 BlondBeast<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $18.09 | $17.36 | -$0.73 | 70% 780-342 (1122) |
 alanhuttonCTR | Noavg 92.4¢ | $284.11 | $2.93 | -$281.17 | 68% 323-151 (474) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $49.95 | $1.67 | -$48.29 | 18% 3792-17166 (20958) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Noavg 81.3¢ | $156.43 | $0.96 | +$20.62 | 76% 525-162 (687) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $2.29 | $0.37 | -$1.92 | 57% 579-436 (1015) |
wagwanshawtyInvested
$7,525.6
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$21.05
Record
—
4-5 (9)
BlondBeast<$100Invested
$18.09
Value
$17.36
PnL
-$0.73
Record
70%
780-342 (1122)
alanhuttonCTRInvested
$284.11
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$281.17
Record
68%
323-151 (474)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$49.95
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$48.29
Record
18%
3792-17166 (20958)
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$156.43
Value
$0.96
PnL
+$20.62
Record
76%
525-162 (687)
Invested
$2.29
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$1.92
Record
57%
579-436 (1015)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.