Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.2K
-$28.4
82¢ → 75.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
998h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 84¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$70.17 | 53% 1124-1007 (2131) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $812.17 | $783.92 | -$28.25 | 73% 2908-1060 (3968) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 79.6¢ | $310.38 | $377.83 | -$7.56 | 49% 1819-1894 (3713) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $124.28 | $9.87 | +$54.96 | 74% 2723-977 (3700) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $28.95 | $4.34 | +$22.63 | 36% 2037-3642 (5679) |
Invested
$1,055.51
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$70.17
Record
53%
1124-1007 (2131)
Tenebrus7Invested
$812.17
Value
$783.92
PnL
-$28.25
Record
73%
2908-1060 (3968)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$310.38
Value
$377.83
PnL
-$7.56
Record
49%
1819-1894 (3713)
viniiCTRInvested
$124.28
Value
$9.87
PnL
+$54.96
Record
74%
2723-977 (3700)
Invested
$28.95
Value
$4.34
PnL
+$22.63
Record
36%
2037-3642 (5679)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.