Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 96¢ · $209 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$208.89
-$73.89
84.5¢ → 96¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-37 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $105.67 | $119.81 | +$14.14 | 46% 10400-12132 (22532) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $51.6 | $49.14 | +$6 | 58% 12069-8702 (20771) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $50 | $12.97 | -$37.03 | 41% 6396-9374 (15770) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $300 | $11.85 | -$18.15 | 53% 29797-26632 (56429) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $36 | $8.3 | -$28.1 | 56% 16134-12882 (29016) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $794.81 | $6.81 | -$10.75 | 72% 14229-5544 (19773) |
Invested
$105.67
Value
$119.81
PnL
+$14.14
Record
46%
10400-12132 (22532)
Invested
$51.6
Value
$49.14
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
12069-8702 (20771)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$12.97
PnL
-$37.03
Record
41%
6396-9374 (15770)
balthazarCTRInvested
$300
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$18.15
Record
53%
29797-26632 (56429)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$28.1
Record
56%
16134-12882 (29016)
Invested
$794.81
Value
$6.81
PnL
-$10.75
Record
72%
14229-5544 (19773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.