AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Henderson Silver Knights

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Henderson Silver Knights (60%) · Henderson Silver Knights at 99¢ · $109 held · ended Oct 29

Ontario Reign1¢Henderson Silver Knights99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Henderson Silver Knights

Consensus Traders

Henderson Silver Knights 60%

Total Value

$108.88

Combined PnL

-$2.62

Research grade

NeutralHenderson Silver Knights at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Henderson Silver Knights

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ontario Reign1%

Henderson Silver Knights99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ontario Reign2 traders

Total Value$94.85

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$1.7

Henderson Silver Knights3 traders

Total Value$14.03

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$4.32

Ontario Reign — 40%Henderson Silver Knights — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ontario Reignavg 49¢	$72.23	$72.5	+$0.27	49% 18756-19165 (37921)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ontario Reignavg 22.5¢	$20.92	$22.35	+$1.43	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Henderson Silver Knightsavg 77¢	$12.32	$8	-$4.32	59% 30140-20887 (51027)
VeryLucky888<$100	Henderson Silver Knightsavg 50¢	$5.01	$5.01	+$0	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
HRTrading<$100	Henderson Silver Knightsavg 50¢	$1.03	$1.03	+$0	53% 3387-3055 (6442)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ontario Reign

Invested

$72.23

Value

$72.5

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

18756-19165 (37921)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ontario Reign

Invested

$20.92

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$1.43

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Henderson Silver Knights

Invested

$12.32

Value

PnL

-$4.32

Record

59%

30140-20887 (51027)

VeryLucky888<$100

Henderson Silver Knights

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

HRTrading<$100

Henderson Silver Knights

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

Research grade

NeutralHenderson Silver Knights at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Henderson Silver Knights

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Henderson Silver Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.