Will Cape Verde vs. Liberia end in a draw?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $624 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$623.79
$48.25
90.9¢ → 99.5¢
+9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH aHjCz | Noavg 99.7¢ | $199.4 | $199 | -$0.4 | 25% 1284-3841 (5125) |
 dips. | Noavg 87¢ | $153.12 | $174.94 | +$21.82 | 46% 741-865 (1606) |
SM smithagent | Noavg 88¢ | $122.33 | $138.17 | +$15.84 | 43% 507-662 (1169) |
SU suitcase6628<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $34.8 | $39.76 | +$4.96 | 63% 464-269 (733) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $21.97 | $26.12 | +$4.15 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $19 | $21.71 | +$2.71 | 47% 786-902 (1688) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $15.81 | $18.57 | +$2.76 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
BE Betyourself<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $4.97 | +$1.07 | — 12-1 (13) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $4.76 | $0.31 | -$4.45 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.45 | $0.25 | -$0.21 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
Invested
$199.4
Value
$199
PnL
-$0.4
Record
25%
1284-3841 (5125)
dips.Invested
$153.12
Value
$174.94
PnL
+$21.82
Record
46%
741-865 (1606)
Invested
$122.33
Value
$138.17
PnL
+$15.84
Record
43%
507-662 (1169)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$39.76
PnL
+$4.96
Record
63%
464-269 (733)
Invested
$21.97
Value
$26.12
PnL
+$4.15
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
poshposh<$100Invested
$19
Value
$21.71
PnL
+$2.71
Record
47%
786-902 (1688)
Invested
$15.81
Value
$18.57
PnL
+$2.76
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$1.07
Record
—
12-1 (13)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$4.45
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.