Shanghai Port FC vs. Cong An Ha Noi FC: O/U 2.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 84¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 100%
$13.8K
$1.9K
60.3¢ → 83.5¢
+39% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 62¢ | $7.5K | $8.9K | +$1.4K | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 54.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$344.04 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$70 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 59.5¢ | $689.22 | $465.29 | +$36.31 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 82¢ | $192.8 | $196.27 | +$3.47 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 58.7¢ | $60.02 | $63.43 | +$3.41 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 62.2¢ | $21.37 | $21.69 | +$0.32 | 54% 55310-47345 (102655) |
Invested
$7,476.57
Value
$8.9K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
Invested
$2,557.49
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$344.04
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$1,160
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$70
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
VeryLucky888Invested
$689.22
Value
$465.29
PnL
+$36.31
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
Invested
$192.8
Value
$196.27
PnL
+$3.47
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$60.02
Value
$63.43
PnL
+$3.41
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
RN1<$100Invested
$21.37
Value
$21.69
PnL
+$0.32
Record
54%
55310-47345 (102655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.