Shanghai Port FC vs. Cong An Ha Noi FC: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.1K
-$128.44
82.2¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 81¢ | $496.45 | $509.09 | +$12.64 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 22¢ | $247.57 | $185.45 | -$62.12 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 22¢ | $187.55 | $140.66 | -$46.89 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 18.8¢ | $140 | $122.93 | -$17.07 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
 RN1 | Overavg 88¢ | $132.93 | $116.2 | -$16.73 | 54% 55310-47345 (102655) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $85.22 | $5.2 | +$1.73 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
Invested
$496.45
Value
$509.09
PnL
+$12.64
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$247.57
Value
$185.45
PnL
-$62.12
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
Invested
$187.55
Value
$140.66
PnL
-$46.89
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
Invested
$140
Value
$122.93
PnL
-$17.07
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
RN1Invested
$132.93
Value
$116.2
PnL
-$16.73
Record
54%
55310-47345 (102655)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$85.22
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$1.73
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.