Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Shanghai Port FC vs. Cong An Ha Noi FC: O/U 0.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $28 held · ended Oct 27

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$27.7

Combined PnL

-$14.09

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$19.1

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.5

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.6

Total Shares439

Combined PnL-$13.59

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 98¢	$19.6	$19.1	-$0.5	77% 3034-925 (3959)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.77	$3.49	+$2.71	60% 9071-5989 (15060)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 8.4¢	$5.7	$3.05	-$2.65	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 5.4¢	$14.92	$1.39	-$13.53	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.45	-$0.15	50% 32577-32115 (64692)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.22	+$0.02	50% 11935-12084 (24019)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

77%

3034-925 (3959)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.77

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$2.71

Record

60%

9071-5989 (15060)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.7

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$2.65

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.92

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$13.53

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.