Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.3K
-$79.98
40.6¢ → 45.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$95.09 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 59.4¢ | $2.1K | $394.94 | -$34.16 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Yesavg 54¢ | $334.05 | $383.54 | +$49.49 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
KL kleomarcus | Yesavg 62¢ | $100.44 | $100.44 | +$0 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.9¢ | $9.72 | $9.5 | -$0.22 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$1,507.17
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$95.09
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,129.83
Value
$394.94
PnL
-$34.16
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$334.05
Value
$383.54
PnL
+$49.49
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$100.44
Value
$100.44
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.72
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.22
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.