Shanghai Port FC vs. Cong An Ha Noi FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
1
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$888.78
$2.86
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 40.4¢ | $570.79 | $795.58 | +$224.79 | 54% 55311-47349 (102660) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56¢ | $231.15 | $400.38 | +$169.23 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 40.4¢ | $339.64 | $395.2 | +$55.56 | |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100 | Overavg 96.9¢ | $93.25 | $93.2 | +$2.86 | 81% 2374-544 (2918) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.