Will Cong An Ha Noi FC win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
$65.26
53.9¢ → 76.5¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $922.25 | $978.26 | +$56 | 54% 55310-47345 (102655) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $733.58 | $657.87 | -$75.7 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.7¢ | $503.47 | $429.02 | -$74.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.2¢ | $230.11 | $228.85 | -$1.26 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $173.11 | $256.23 | +$83.12 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $95.81 | $202.82 | +$107.01 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.9¢ | $77.3 | $53.41 | -$23.89 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $117.19 | $117.24 | +$0.05 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $20.02 | $20.7 | +$0.68 | 54% 2548-2182 (4730) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $5.23 | $9.11 | +$3.88 | 60% 9071-5989 (15060) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.6 | $9.1 | +$4.5 | 59% 29916-20638 (50554) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $4 | +$0.15 | 54% 5999-5086 (11085) |
RN1Invested
$922.25
Value
$978.26
PnL
+$56
Record
54%
55310-47345 (102655)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$733.58
Value
$657.87
PnL
-$75.7
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
Both legs:
Invested
$173.11
Value
$256.23
PnL
+$83.12
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.19
Value
$117.24
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.02
Value
$20.7
PnL
+$0.68
Record
54%
2548-2182 (4730)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.23
Value
$9.11
PnL
+$3.88
Record
60%
9071-5989 (15060)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$4.5
Record
59%
29916-20638 (50554)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
5999-5086 (11085)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.