Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Al Hilal SFC, while the market favors Al-Shamal (56%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Al Hilal SFC (-1.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Al Hilal SFC (100%) · Al Hilal SFC at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Al Hilal SFC
4
Al Hilal SFC 100%
$1.8K
$51.75
47.3¢ → 44.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAl Hilal SFC at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Al-Shamal 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Al Hilal SFCavg 47¢ | $932.48 | $972.16 | +$49.6 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Al Hilal SFCavg 48.6¢ | $584.17 | $588.38 | +$4.2 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Al Hilal SFCavg 45¢ | $199.98 | $197.76 | -$2.22 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Al Hilal SFCavg 45.5¢ | $2.23 | $2.4 | +$0.17 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$932.48
Value
$972.16
PnL
+$49.6
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$584.17
Value
$588.38
PnL
+$4.2
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$199.98
Value
$197.76
PnL
-$2.22
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.23
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.