Will Al-Shamal win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 75¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 27

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$729.26

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 74.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,670

Combined PnL+$976.15

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,610

Combined PnL-$246.89

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68.4¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$195.69	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
oieshfn345	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$2.6K	+$755.87	58% 1600-1180 (2780)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 32.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$135.66	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$785.92	$778.82	-$7.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.6¢	$816.73	$688.18	-$128.55
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 53.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$27.3	51% 1209-1141 (2350)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$1.1K	$875.4	-$253.09	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$556.62	$536.01	-$20.62	55% 1671-1366 (3037)
MY myxiCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$405	$412.5	+$7.5	68% 314-149 (463)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$288.31	$290.76	+$2.45	50% 11961-12111 (24072)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$248.81	$252.6	+$3.79	50% 10445-10310 (20755)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$198.89	$197.88	-$1.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$49.92	$54.72	+$4.8
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$137.88	$184.04	+$46.16	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
poshposh	Noavg 51.9¢	$92.91	$118.06	+$25.15	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$47	$45	-$2	64% 954-532 (1486)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$41.7	$42.08	+$0.38	54% 6002-5094 (11096)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$24.25	$23.32	-$0.93	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,808.71

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$195.69

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,817.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$755.87

Record

58%

1600-1180 (2780)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,602.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$135.66

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Both legs:

No$785.9273.2¢-$7.1

Yes$816.7332.6¢-$128.55

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,134

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.3

Record

51%

1209-1141 (2350)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,128.49

Value

$875.4

PnL

-$253.09

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Yes

Invested

$556.62

Value

$536.01

PnL

-$20.62

Record

55%

1671-1366 (3037)

myxiCTR

Yes

Invested

$405

Value

$412.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

68%

314-149 (463)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.31

Value

$290.76

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

11961-12111 (24072)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$248.81

Value

$252.6

PnL

+$3.79

Record

50%

10445-10310 (20755)

Both legs:

Invested

$137.88

Value

$184.04

PnL

+$46.16

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

poshposh

Invested

$92.91

Value

$118.06

PnL

+$25.15

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47

Value

$45

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

954-532 (1486)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$41.7

Value

$42.08

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

6002-5094 (11096)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$24.25

Value

$23.32

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.