Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 57¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$10.93

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 57¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,811

Combined PnL-$18.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$91.23

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$7.95

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$6.17	58% 1599-1172 (2771)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$158.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$164.78
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 49.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$25.93	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 46.8¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	-$184.64	53% 5469-4814 (10283)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 47.7¢	$554.54	$634.21	+$79.67	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 46¢	$329.87	$390.98	+$61.11	50% 32583-32122 (64705)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$54.56	$65.71	+$11.16	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$23.42	$20.51	-$2.91	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 51¢	$12.04	$11.1	-$0.94	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.3	$5	-$0.3	54% 6000-5088 (11088)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,471.32

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$6.17

Record

58%

1599-1172 (2771)

Both legs:

No$1,137.749.1¢+$158.61

Yes$1,333.6250.2¢-$164.78

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,670.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$25.93

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,642.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$184.64

Record

53%

5469-4814 (10283)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$554.54

Value

$634.21

PnL

+$79.67

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

SnakeBall

Invested

$329.87

Value

$390.98

PnL

+$61.11

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.56

Value

$65.71

PnL

+$11.16

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.42

Value

$20.51

PnL

-$2.91

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

foooool<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

6000-5088 (11088)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.