Will Esteghlal FC Tehran win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$14.98
81.2¢ → 85¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$2.68 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 80.8¢ | $364.03 | $376.19 | +$12.16 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $305.19 | $263.44 | -$41.75 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $198.01 | $146.85 | -$51.16 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.8¢ | $107.18 | $116.59 | +$9.41 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $51.36 | $50.4 | -$0.96 | 53% 5469-4814 (10283) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $43.6 | $44.71 | +$1.11 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
oieshfn345Invested
$1,658.85
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$2.68
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
Invested
$364.03
Value
$376.19
PnL
+$12.16
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$305.19
Value
$263.44
PnL
-$41.75
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.36
Value
$50.4
PnL
-$0.96
Record
53%
5469-4814 (10283)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$43.6
Value
$44.71
PnL
+$1.11
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.