Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs. Esteghlal FC Tehran end in a draw?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 59¢ · $544 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$543.7
-$34.42
67.7¢ → 59¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $344.19 | $300.46 | -$43.73 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $218.63 | $227.24 | +$8.61 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $6.45 | -$0.75 | 54% 6000-5088 (11088) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.17 | $4.51 | +$1.33 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.9 | $3.59 | -$0.31 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.03 | $1.46 | +$0.43 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
oieshfn345Invested
$344.19
Value
$300.46
PnL
-$43.73
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
Invested
$218.63
Value
$227.24
PnL
+$8.61
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.75
Record
54%
6000-5088 (11088)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$4.51
PnL
+$1.33
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.59
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
11942-12092 (24034)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.46
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.