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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$306.92
55.6¢ → 80¢
+44% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 55¢ | $679.73 | $958 | +$278.26 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
FO foooool | Noavg 59.2¢ | $109.39 | $140.49 | +$31.09 | 50% 10445-10309 (20754) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $65.16 | $67.47 | +$2.3 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $45.6 | $40 | -$5.6 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.06 | $3.19 | +$0.87 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
Invested
$679.73
Value
$958
PnL
+$278.26
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
Invested
$109.39
Value
$140.49
PnL
+$31.09
Record
50%
10445-10309 (20754)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$65.16
Value
$67.47
PnL
+$2.3
Record
60%
9092-6016 (15108)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$40
PnL
-$5.6
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$0.87
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.