Ratchaburi FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $57K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$56.7K
-$114.98
98.8¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.8¢ | $55.4K | $55.3K | -$111.03 | 64% 1178-657 (1835) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 55¢ | $555.59 | $681.76 | +$130.44 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
LA LaarsY | Underavg 93¢ | $465 | $340 | -$125 | 50% 3360-3309 (6669) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 20.7¢ | $184.7 | $157.45 | -$27.26 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
FO foooool | Underavg 63.7¢ | $106.44 | $113.56 | +$7.12 | 50% 10445-10309 (20754) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $54.07 | $50.37 | -$3.7 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 78.3¢ | $52.61 | $45.38 | -$7.23 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 3.6¢ | $2.73 | $24.11 | +$21.39 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.51 | +$0.29 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
Invested
$55,398.99
Value
$55.3K
PnL
-$111.03
Record
64%
1178-657 (1835)
VeryLucky888Invested
$555.59
Value
$681.76
PnL
+$130.44
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
Invested
$465
Value
$340
PnL
-$125
Record
50%
3360-3309 (6669)
Invested
$184.7
Value
$157.45
PnL
-$27.26
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
Invested
$106.44
Value
$113.56
PnL
+$7.12
Record
50%
10445-10309 (20754)
Invested
$54.07
Value
$50.37
PnL
-$3.7
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$52.61
Value
$45.38
PnL
-$7.23
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$24.11
PnL
+$21.39
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.51
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.