Ratchaburi FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$602.85

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 99.5¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,786

Combined PnL-$504.25

Over3 traders

Total Value$580.74

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL-$98.6

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99¢	$798.53	$790.47	-$8.07	64% 1178-657 (1835)
BE betwithconvicCTR	Overavg 67¢	$669.99	$554.99	-$115	57% 477-360 (837)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 78.8¢	$917.99	$518.65	-$399.34	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97.9¢	$580.6	$469.07	-$111.53	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 33¢	$94.45	$127.37	+$32.92	58% 40375-29164 (69539)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 78¢	$49.88	$28.46	-$21.42	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$7.91	$24.39	+$16.48	54% 55313-47351 (102664)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 78¢	$6.05	$7.78	+$1.73	50% 24824-24520 (49344)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.75	$6.36	+$2.6	54% 2554-2186 (4740)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 74¢	$2.85	$1.71	-$1.13	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$1.44	$1.35	-$0.09	50% 11935-12084 (24019)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$798.53

Value

$790.47

PnL

-$8.07

Record

64%

1178-657 (1835)

betwithconvicCTR

Over

Invested

$669.99

Value

$554.99

PnL

-$115

Record

57%

477-360 (837)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$917.99

Value

$518.65

PnL

-$399.34

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$580.6

Value

$469.07

PnL

-$111.53

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$94.45

Value

$127.37

PnL

+$32.92

Record

58%

40375-29164 (69539)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$49.88

Value

$28.46

PnL

-$21.42

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.91

Value

$24.39

PnL

+$16.48

Record

54%

55313-47351 (102664)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.05

Value

$7.78

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

24824-24520 (49344)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.75

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

2554-2186 (4740)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.