Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ratchaburi FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 5.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 50%
$3.9K
$638.43
35¢ → 5.5¢
-84% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$142.33 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 51.9¢ | $717.93 | $1.2K | +$465.61 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
 RN1 | Underavg 57.2¢ | $572.33 | $815.55 | +$243.23 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 14.9¢ | $304.67 | $320.11 | +$15.45 | 50% 10445-10309 (20754) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Overavg 59¢ | $284.15 | $317.86 | +$33.71 | 50% 3360-3309 (6669) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.4¢ | $61.41 | $85.52 | +$24.11 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $16.01 | $10.47 | -$5.54 | 50% 24824-24520 (49344) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $5.07 | $9.26 | +$4.2 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
Invested
$1,335.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$142.33
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$717.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$465.61
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
RN1Invested
$572.33
Value
$815.55
PnL
+$243.23
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
Invested
$304.67
Value
$320.11
PnL
+$15.45
Record
50%
10445-10309 (20754)
Invested
$284.15
Value
$317.86
PnL
+$33.71
Record
50%
3360-3309 (6669)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$61.41
Value
$85.52
PnL
+$24.11
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
Invested
$16.01
Value
$10.47
PnL
-$5.54
Record
50%
24824-24520 (49344)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$4.2
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.