Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ratchaburi FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 0.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 37¢ · $34K held · ended Oct 27

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 36.6¢

-61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares22,759

Combined PnL-$862.17

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares18,842

Combined PnL+$6.7K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguyCTR	Overavg 96.5¢	$19.9K	$19.6K	-$361.72	95% 36-2 (38)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 11.7¢	$2.0K	$8.4K	+$6.4K	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 70.1¢	$5.0K	$3.8K	$-1.1K	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.1¢	$4.8K	$2.8K	$-2.0K
└ Under leg	Underavg 9.6¢	$163.59	$997.81	+$834.22
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 81.1¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$500.45	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
RN1	Underavg 36.7¢	$671.34	$989.87	+$318.53	54% 55313-47351 (102664)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 19.2¢	$345.51	$204.32	-$141.2	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
└ Over leg	Overavg 89.8¢	$140.56	$148.32	+$7.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.2¢	$204.96	$55.99	-$148.96
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 5.5¢	$48.4	$48.81	+$0.41	54% 2554-2186 (4740)
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.5¢	$29.14	$27.8	-$1.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 86.9¢	$19.26	$21.01	+$1.75
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 17.7¢	$22.73	$6.74	-$15.99	50% 10445-10309 (20754)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 13¢	$1.92	$0.78	-$1.15	60% 9077-5998 (15075)

thetesterguyCTR

Over

Invested

$19,946.05

Value

$19.6K

PnL

-$361.72

Record

95%

36-2 (38)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,028.86

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,968.28

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

Both legs:

Over$4,804.6970.1¢$-2.0K

Under$163.599.6¢+$834.22

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$1,717.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$500.45

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

RN1

Under

Invested

$671.34

Value

$989.87

PnL

+$318.53

Record

54%

55313-47351 (102664)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$345.51

Value

$204.32

PnL

-$141.2

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

Both legs:

Over$140.5689.8¢+$7.77

Under$204.9619.2¢-$148.96

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$48.4

Value

$48.81

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

2554-2186 (4740)

Both legs:

Under$29.145.5¢-$1.33

Over$19.2686.9¢+$1.75

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$22.73

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$15.99

Record

50%

10445-10309 (20754)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$1.92

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$1.15

Record

60%

9077-5998 (15075)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.8%

36.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$157.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

257.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.