Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ratchaburi FC (43%) · Ratchaburi FC at 97¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Kashiwa Reysol3¢Ratchaburi FC97¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ratchaburi FC

Consensus Traders

Ratchaburi FC 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 96.9¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRatchaburi FC at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ratchaburi FC

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kashiwa Reysol3%

Ratchaburi FC97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ratchaburi FC3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,904

Combined PnL-$410.76

Kashiwa Reysol4 traders

Total Value$458.07

Total Shares3,224

Combined PnL-$952.19

Ratchaburi FC — 43%Kashiwa Reysol — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Ratchaburi FCavg 57.7¢	$3.5K	$5.5K	+$2.0K	50% 24101-23732 (47833)
└ Kashiwa Reysol leg	Kashiwa Reysolavg 26.6¢	$1.7K	$2.9K	+$1.2K
└ Ratchaburi FC leg	Ratchaburi FCavg 57.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$781.52
ME metski29	Ratchaburi FCavg 69.1¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$343.65	45% 296-369 (665)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kashiwa Reysolavg 45.3¢	$1.4K	$319.23	-$998.31	58% 40375-29164 (69539)
UP UpTheBlues	Ratchaburi FCavg 68.8¢	$311.62	$248.96	-$62.66	59% 44243-30611 (74854)
RN1CTR	Kashiwa Reysolavg 30¢	$91.53	$137.3	+$45.77	54% 55313-47351 (102664)
HRTrading<$100	Ratchaburi FCavg 79.7¢	$14.38	$9.93	-$4.45	54% 2554-2186 (4740)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kashiwa Reysolavg 9¢	$1.09	$1.39	+$0.3	50% 32578-32115 (64693)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Kashiwa Reysolavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.15	+$0.05	59% 29920-20643 (50563)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Ratchaburi FC

Invested

$3,489.66

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

24101-23732 (47833)

Both legs:

Kashiwa Reysol$1,711.9726.6¢+$1.2K

Ratchaburi FC$2,685.0557.7¢+$781.52

metski29

Ratchaburi FC

Invested

$1,681.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$343.65

Record

45%

296-369 (665)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kashiwa Reysol

Invested

$1,365.48

Value

$319.23

PnL

-$998.31

Record

58%

40375-29164 (69539)

UpTheBlues

Ratchaburi FC

Invested

$311.62

Value

$248.96

PnL

-$62.66

Record

59%

44243-30611 (74854)

RN1CTR

Kashiwa Reysol

Invested

$91.53

Value

$137.3

PnL

+$45.77

Record

54%

55313-47351 (102664)

HRTrading<$100

Ratchaburi FC

Invested

$14.38

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$4.45

Record

54%

2554-2186 (4740)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kashiwa Reysol

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

32578-32115 (64693)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Kashiwa Reysol

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

29920-20643 (50563)

Research grade

NeutralRatchaburi FC at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ratchaburi FC

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ratchaburi FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.