Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-10-27?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 39¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.4K
$174.86
33.4¢ → 38.5¢
+15% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 31.9¢ | $1.1K | $701.31 | +$158.95 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $427.33 | $445.03 | +$17.7 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
KL kleomarcus | Yesavg 71¢ | $100.09 | $95.15 | -$4.93 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $62.9 | $65.94 | +$3.04 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $40.95 | $41.52 | +$0.57 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.6¢ | $7.26 | $7.02 | -$0.24 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $5.34 | $5.1 | -$0.24 | 63% 1045-602 (1647) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,116.5
Value
$701.31
PnL
+$158.95
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$427.33
Value
$445.03
PnL
+$17.7
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
Invested
$100.09
Value
$95.15
PnL
-$4.93
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
Invested
$62.9
Value
$65.94
PnL
+$3.04
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$41.52
PnL
+$0.57
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.02
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.24
Record
63%
1045-602 (1647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.