Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 1.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$45.8K

Combined PnL

$-7.7K

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$45.8K

Total Shares45,789

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$15.51

Total Shares31,027

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Overavg 99.9¢	$48.2K	$45.0K	$-3.2K	54% 65-55 (120)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80¢	$430.79	$537.97	+$107.18	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
SU suntori	Overavg 83¢	$126.65	$152.51	-$3.05	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 88¢	$54.56	$61.97	+$7.41	74% 1759-610 (2369)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 95¢	$20.26	$20.01	-$0.25	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
RN1CTR	Underavg 16¢	$4.4K	$13.62	$-4.3K	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 96¢	$11.04	$11.49	+$0.45	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	76% 4233-1325 (5558)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 18¢	$46.21	$0.92	-$45.3	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 15.9¢	$242.61	$0.77	-$241.84	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 15.6¢	$51.16	$0.16	-$51	51% 1005-965 (1970)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$7.31	$0.02	-$7.29	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$1.17	$0.02	-$1.16	49% 96-100 (196)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$2.64	$0.01	-$2.63	46% 7938-9258 (17196)

yabanci

Over

Invested

$48,163.01

Value

$45.0K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

54%

65-55 (120)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$430.79

Value

$537.97

PnL

+$107.18

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

suntori

Over

Invested

$126.65

Value

$152.51

PnL

-$3.05

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$54.56

Value

$61.97

PnL

+$7.41

Record

74%

1759-610 (2369)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$20.26

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$4,357.28

Value

$13.62

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.49

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

76%

4233-1325 (5558)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$46.21

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$45.3

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$242.61

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$241.84

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$51

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.31

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.29

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.16

Record

49%

96-100 (196)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.63

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.