Kyoto Sanga FC vs. Newcastle United Jets: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$21.96

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 69.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,148

Combined PnL+$3.68

Under3 traders

Total Value$229.14

Total Shares447

Combined PnL+$18.29

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 63.5¢	$510.23	$554.29	+$44.06	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
KK kkpay19888	Overavg 48¢	$531.37	$503.7	-$27.68	51% 520-509 (1029)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 61.4¢	$404.12	$454.15	+$50.04	81% 2374-544 (2918)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 62¢	$244.74	$179.61	-$65.13	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 68¢	$162.49	$164.88	+$2.39	50% 32577-32115 (64692)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$95.11	$105.42	+$10.31	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$157.64	$80.88	+$3.59	58% 40367-29157 (69524)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 37.3¢	$38.45	$42.84	+$4.38	60% 9071-5989 (15060)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$510.23

Value

$554.29

PnL

+$44.06

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

kkpay19888

Over

Invested

$531.37

Value

$503.7

PnL

-$27.68

Record

51%

520-509 (1029)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$404.12

Value

$454.15

PnL

+$50.04

Record

81%

2374-544 (2918)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$244.74

Value

$179.61

PnL

-$65.13

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$162.49

Value

$164.88

PnL

+$2.39

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$95.11

Value

$105.42

PnL

+$10.31

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$157.64

Value

$80.88

PnL

+$3.59

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.45

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$4.38

Record

60%

9071-5989 (15060)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.