Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kyoto Sanga FC win on 2026-10-27?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 32¢ · $930 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$930.06
-$0.14
32.8¢ → 31.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $723.69 | $690.79 | -$32.9 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
KL kleomarcus | Yesavg 68¢ | $102 | $102.75 | +$0.75 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 31.5¢ | $801.73 | $69.58 | +$32.02 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $44.8 | $44.1 | -$0.7 | 54% 55308-47341 (102649) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $17.81 | $17.81 | +$0.86 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $3.96 | $3.78 | -$0.18 | 51% 3886-3800 (7686) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.24 | $1.24 | +$0 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$723.69
Value
$690.79
PnL
-$32.9
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
Invested
$102
Value
$102.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$801.73
Value
$69.58
PnL
+$32.02
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$44.8
Value
$44.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
54%
55308-47341 (102649)
Invested
$17.81
Value
$17.81
PnL
+$0.86
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
3886-3800 (7686)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.