Will Kyoto Sanga FC vs. Newcastle United Jets end in a draw?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 78¢ · $703 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$703.38
$54.94
76.8¢ → 78¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $336.07 | $375.81 | +$39.74 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 82¢ | $101.32 | $103.17 | +$1.85 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $82.64 | $92 | +$9.37 | 60% 9071-5989 (15060) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $93.43 | $89.01 | +$1.67 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $19.97 | $22.02 | +$2.05 | 54% 5999-5086 (11085) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $21.11 | $21.37 | +$0.26 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
oieshfn345Invested
$336.07
Value
$375.81
PnL
+$39.74
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
Invested
$101.32
Value
$103.17
PnL
+$1.85
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
poshposh<$100Invested
$82.64
Value
$92
PnL
+$9.37
Record
60%
9071-5989 (15060)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$93.43
Value
$89.01
PnL
+$1.67
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$22.02
PnL
+$2.05
Record
54%
5999-5086 (11085)
Invested
$21.11
Value
$21.37
PnL
+$0.26
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.