Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$7.2K
$630.12
75.7¢ → 97.8¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 79.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.8K | +$406.06 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 66¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$141.51 | 50% 218-221 (439) |
 RN1 | Underavg 99.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$5.19 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 63¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$90.99 | 53% 5498-4842 (10340) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $15.77 | $9.22 | -$6.55 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $6.7 | -$0.5 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 10.3¢ | $11.91 | $5.32 | -$6.59 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
Invested
$2,404.31
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$406.06
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$1,556.65
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$141.51
Record
50%
218-221 (439)
RN1Invested
$1,540.77
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$5.19
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Invested
$1,146.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$90.99
Record
53%
5498-4842 (10340)
Invested
$15.77
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$6.55
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$11.91
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$6.59
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.