Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: O/U 2.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 79¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 28

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 79¢

+67% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares42,272

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares20,750

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NB nb1985	Underavg 51.3¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$149.64	53% 23-20 (43)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 43.7¢	$9.9K	$7.6K	$-2.3K	48% 129-137 (266)
RN1CTR	Overavg 52.6¢	$9.7K	$5.9K	$-3.8K	54% 55690-47783 (103473)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$6.0K	$4.7K	$-1.3K	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$4.5K	$2.5K	$-2.1K
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$786.49
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Overavg 55.9¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$422.57	59% 44600-31002 (75602)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$132.16
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.9¢	$1.5K	$963.97	-$554.73
poshposhCTR	Overavg 48¢	$432	$445.5	+$13.5	60% 9354-6325 (15679)
AD adururuCTR	Overavg 51¢	$349.54	$339.26	-$10.28	53% 355-309 (664)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$349.04	$339.26	-$9.78	53% 327-291 (618)
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$483.3	$298.5	-$184.8	53% 3039-2703 (5742)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$425.09	$216.23	-$208.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$58.21	$82.27	+$24.06
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$27.61	$26.07	-$1.54	50% 32768-32326 (65094)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 61¢	$18.02	$18.17	+$0.15	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 64¢	$10.3	$10	-$0.3	51% 1276-1208 (2484)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$7.02	$7.45	+$0.43	50% 12108-12314 (24422)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	49% 18592-19012 (37604)

nb1985

Under

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$149.64

Record

53%

23-20 (43)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$9,923.09

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

48%

129-137 (266)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$9,697.69

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

54%

55690-47783 (103473)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,982.2

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Over$4,523.8252.2¢$-2.1K

Under$1,458.3846.5¢+$786.49

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,718.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$422.57

Record

59%

44600-31002 (75602)

Both legs:

Under$1,199.9258.1¢+$132.16

Over$1,518.755.9¢-$554.73

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$432

Value

$445.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

60%

9354-6325 (15679)

adururuCTR

Over

Invested

$349.54

Value

$339.26

PnL

-$10.28

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Over

Invested

$349.04

Value

$339.26

PnL

-$9.78

Record

53%

327-291 (618)

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$483.3

Value

$298.5

PnL

-$184.8

Record

53%

3039-2703 (5742)

Both legs:

Over$425.0956¢-$208.86

Under$58.2150.6¢+$24.06

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.61

Value

$26.07

PnL

-$1.54

Record

50%

32768-32326 (65094)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$18.02

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

1276-1208 (2484)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

12108-12314 (24422)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

18592-19012 (37604)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.