Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: O/U 1.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 78¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 28

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 78¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares15,050

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over2 traders

Total Value$220.45

Total Shares570

Combined PnL+$16.75

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 59.4¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$487.91	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 37.7¢	$2.0K	$3.7K	+$1.7K	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
RN1	Underavg 54.8¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$379.66	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$677.37	-$424.88	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$848.15	$416.4	-$431.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 74¢	$254.1	$260.97	+$6.87
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 32.8¢	$221.87	$209.75	-$12.12	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.7¢	$84.65	$115.62	+$30.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.8¢	$137.22	$94.14	-$43.09
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 35¢	$175	$190	+$15	50% 3373-3315 (6688)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$48.03	$64.73	+$16.7	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$28.7	$30.45	+$1.75	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 51¢	$17.3	$12.4	-$4.9	51% 1276-1209 (2485)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,018.82

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$487.91

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,950.65

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,982.9

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$379.66

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,102.25

Value

$677.37

PnL

-$424.88

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

Both legs:

Under$848.1548.9¢-$431.75

Over$254.174¢+$6.87

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$221.87

Value

$209.75

PnL

-$12.12

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Both legs:

Under$84.6556.7¢+$30.97

Over$137.2232.8¢-$43.09

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$175

Value

$190

PnL

+$15

Record

50%

3373-3315 (6688)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$48.03

Value

$64.73

PnL

+$16.7

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.7

Value

$30.45

PnL

+$1.75

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$17.3

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$4.9

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.