Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 38¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
3 arb excluded
$6.3K
$1.9K
14.9¢ → 38.3¢
+157% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 16.9¢ | $892.71 | $2.0K | +$1.1K | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 27.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$224.74 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 27.7¢ | $867.92 | $1.2K | +$330.28 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 73.5¢ | $659.3 | $553.76 | -$105.54 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 9.1¢ | $209.03 | $877.88 | +$668.85 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Overavg 91.7¢ | $714.14 | $634.86 | -$79.28 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 91.7¢ | $531.86 | $457.62 | -$74.24 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.7¢ | $182.28 | $177.24 | -$5.04 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 64.4¢ | $388.34 | $624.93 | +$236.59 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 14.7¢ | $166.09 | $402.69 | +$236.61 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 64.4¢ | $222.26 | $222.24 | -$0.02 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 18.4¢ | $142.23 | $272.7 | +$130.47 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 78.5¢ | $128.23 | $127.98 | -$0.25 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 78.6¢ | $31.91 | $34.85 | +$2.94 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$892.71
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,527.23
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$224.74
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Both legs:
Invested
$209.03
Value
$877.88
PnL
+$668.85
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
Invested
$714.14
Value
$634.86
PnL
-$79.28
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Both legs:
Invested
$388.34
Value
$624.93
PnL
+$236.59
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
Invested
$142.23
Value
$272.7
PnL
+$130.47
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$128.23
Value
$127.98
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$31.91
Value
$34.85
PnL
+$2.94
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.