Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FC Pohang Steelers (50%) · FC Pohang Steelers at 61¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28

Kashima Antlers40¢FC Pohang Steelers60¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Pohang Steelers

Consensus Traders

FC Pohang Steelers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

-$115.12

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 60.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Pohang Steelers at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Pohang Steelers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kashima Antlers40%

FC Pohang Steelers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Pohang Steelers4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,870

Combined PnL-$167.71

Kashima Antlers4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,295

Combined PnL+$52.59

FC Pohang Steelers — 50%Kashima Antlers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	FC Pohang Steelersavg 51.5¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$135.92	49% 18592-19012 (37604)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Kashima Antlersavg 47.3¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$144.76	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Kashima Antlers leg	Kashima Antlersavg 47.3¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$219.56
└ FC Pohang Steelers leg	FC Pohang Steelersavg 55.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$74.8
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Kashima Antlersavg 44.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$49.33	59% 44600-31002 (75602)
└ FC Pohang Steelers leg	FC Pohang Steelersavg 56.8¢	$999.27	$1.0K	+$29.6
└ Kashima Antlers leg	Kashima Antlersavg 44.9¢	$1.1K	$971.31	-$78.93
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Kashima Antlersavg 48¢	$960	$1.0K	+$40	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kashima Antlersavg 43.6¢	$2.8K	$821.5	-$14.69	58% 40740-29467 (70207)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Kashima Antlersavg 48¢	$585.72	$610.12	+$24.4	47% 2405-2686 (5091)
LU LuckyLoo	FC Pohang Steelersavg 57¢	$182.19	$159.81	-$22.37	50% 12108-12314 (24422)
SA Saber-greed	FC Pohang Steelersavg 53¢	$159.25	$150.24	-$9.01	59% 2526-1757 (4283)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kashima Antlersavg 43¢	$25.72	$28.6	+$2.87	53% 3039-2703 (5742)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	FC Pohang Steelersavg 54¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	51% 1276-1208 (2484)

omnibus-076daa

FC Pohang Steelers

Invested

$4,755.69

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$135.92

Record

49%

18592-19012 (37604)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$3,053.47

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$144.76

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Kashima Antlers$1,794.3847.3¢-$219.56

FC Pohang Steelers$1,259.0955.2¢+$74.8

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$2,049.51

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$49.33

Record

59%

44600-31002 (75602)

Both legs:

FC Pohang Steelers$999.2756.8¢+$29.6

Kashima Antlers$1,050.2444.9¢-$78.93

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$960

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$2,787.99

Value

$821.5

PnL

-$14.69

Record

58%

40740-29467 (70207)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$585.72

Value

$610.12

PnL

+$24.4

Record

47%

2405-2686 (5091)

LuckyLoo

FC Pohang Steelers

Invested

$182.19

Value

$159.81

PnL

-$22.37

Record

50%

12108-12314 (24422)

Saber-greed

FC Pohang Steelers

Invested

$159.25

Value

$150.24

PnL

-$9.01

Record

59%

2526-1757 (4283)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kashima Antlers

Invested

$25.72

Value

$28.6

PnL

+$2.87

Record

53%

3039-2703 (5742)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

FC Pohang Steelers

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

1276-1208 (2484)

Research grade

NeutralFC Pohang Steelers at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Pohang Steelers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Pohang Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.