Will FC Pohang Steelers win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$5.6K
-$182.53
89.3¢ → 92.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$118.14 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
 RN1 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$22.78 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
LA LaarsY | Noavg 92¢ | $460 | $462.5 | +$2.5 | 50% 3373-3315 (6688) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $724.82 | $445.4 | -$279.42 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $161.83 | $118.95 | -$42.89 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $75 | $70.31 | -$4.69 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $37.27 | $37.51 | +$0.24 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $20.56 | $20.85 | +$0.29 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.17 | $1.7 | +$0.52 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
Invested
$2,357.67
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$118.14
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
RN1Invested
$1,981.79
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$22.78
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Invested
$460
Value
$462.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
50%
3373-3315 (6688)
Invested
$724.82
Value
$445.4
PnL
-$279.42
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$161.83
Value
$118.95
PnL
-$42.89
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
Invested
$75
Value
$70.31
PnL
-$4.69
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$37.27
Value
$37.51
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
Invested
$20.56
Value
$20.85
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.