Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-28?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$5.4K
$651.7
35¢ → 50.5¢
+44% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 32.5¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$326.51 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.5¢ | $985.19 | $1.5K | +$543.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69.7¢ | $747.1 | $530.23 | -$216.87 | |
 RN1 | Noavg 41.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$175.41 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 30.9¢ | $744.84 | $1.1K | +$326.55 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 31.5¢ | $863.77 | $718.7 | +$131.66 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $139.56 | $150.26 | +$10.7 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $74.97 | $75.71 | +$0.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42¢ | $64.59 | $74.56 | +$9.96 | |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 48.8¢ | $81.33 | $80.9 | -$0.43 | 53% 696-624 (1320) |
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $57.62 | $63.58 | +$6.95 | 50% 3890-3813 (7703) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 36.4¢ | $35.33 | $39.3 | +$3.98 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 34.7¢ | $18.7 | $24.49 | +$5.8 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 37.3¢ | $11.82 | $14 | +$2.17 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $7 | $6.6 | -$0.4 | 52% 5870-5504 (11374) |
Invested
$1,732.28
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$326.51
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,023.15
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$175.41
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Invested
$744.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$326.55
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
VeryLucky888Invested
$863.77
Value
$718.7
PnL
+$131.66
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$139.56
Value
$150.26
PnL
+$10.7
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.33
Value
$80.9
PnL
-$0.43
Record
53%
696-624 (1320)
Invested
$57.62
Value
$63.58
PnL
+$6.95
Record
50%
3890-3813 (7703)
Invested
$35.33
Value
$39.3
PnL
+$3.98
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Invested
$18.7
Value
$24.49
PnL
+$5.8
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.82
Value
$14
PnL
+$2.17
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$7
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
5870-5504 (11374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RN1
No — $1.2K
UpTheBlues
No — $1.1K
VeryLucky888
No — $718.7
foooool
ARBArbitrage — excluded
RichieRicher
No — $80.9
GamblingAddict12345
No — $63.58
LuckyLoo
No — $39.3
SnakeBall
No — $24.49
HRTrading
No — $14