Kashima Antlers vs. FC Pohang Steelers: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $739 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$739.19
-$5.04
58.9¢ → 92.5¢
+57% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $436.98 | $433.53 | +$1.49 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
FO foooool | Noavg 77.7¢ | $148.71 | $158.93 | +$10.22 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $79.84 | $84 | +$4.16 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $41.18 | $20.01 | -$21.17 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $12.24 | $16.49 | +$4.25 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $19.71 | $15.71 | -$4 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $10.51 | $10.51 | +$0 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$436.98
Value
$433.53
PnL
+$1.49
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$148.71
Value
$158.93
PnL
+$10.22
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$79.84
Value
$84
PnL
+$4.16
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$41.18
Value
$20.01
PnL
-$21.17
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.24
Value
$16.49
PnL
+$4.25
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.71
Value
$15.71
PnL
-$4
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$10.51
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.