Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Johor Darul Ta'zim vs. Port FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 49¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$7.0K
$87.09
51.9¢ → 48.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI viper0310CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$22.63 | 47% 14-16 (30) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$64.45 | 53% 1098-972 (2070) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$29.75 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 47.1¢ | $865.77 | $891.43 | +$25.66 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 53.7¢ | $901.21 | $666.16 | +$8.13 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $56.94 | $52.89 | -$4.05 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $1.23 | $1.24 | +$0.01 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
Invested
$2,297.47
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$22.63
Record
47%
14-16 (30)
Invested
$2,017.76
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$64.45
Record
53%
1098-972 (2070)
Invested
$1,051.1
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$29.75
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$865.77
Value
$891.43
PnL
+$25.66
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$901.21
Value
$666.16
PnL
+$8.13
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$56.94
Value
$52.89
PnL
-$4.05
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.