Will Port FC win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$3.9K
$27.38
93.4¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$37.55 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 94¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$15.15 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $39.77 | $39.77 | -$0 | 50% 32577-32115 (64692) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 94¢ | $503.04 | $15.5 | +$5.13 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $5.46 | $5.52 | +$0.06 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $1.86 | $1.61 | -$0.24 | 54% 2548-2182 (4730) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.26 | $0.29 | +$0.03 | 54% 55310-47345 (102655) |
Invested
$2,405.46
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$37.55
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
Invested
$1,423.88
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$15.15
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$39.77
Value
$39.77
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
32577-32115 (64692)
VeryLucky888Invested
$503.04
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$5.13
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
2548-2182 (4730)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.29
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
55310-47345 (102655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.