Will Johor Darul Ta'zim win on 2026-10-27?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 75¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 27

Yes75¢No25¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$33.48

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 74.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,360

Combined PnL+$147.24

No4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares11,273

Combined PnL-$113.75

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 74.1¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$142.61	49% 18384-18810 (37194)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 82.2¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$157.22	58% 1599-1172 (2771)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$157.22
└ No leg	Noavg 25¢	$472.33	$472.33	-$0
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 26¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$123.41	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
RN1CTR	Noavg 25.3¢	$442.84	$427.39	-$15.45	54% 55310-47345 (102655)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$273.48	$300.01	+$26.53	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
SA Saber-greed	Yesavg 74.6¢	$216.14	$218.78	+$2.65	59% 2504-1737 (4241)
KL kleomarcus	Yesavg 81¢	$100.44	$99.82	-$0.62	63% 1646-987 (2633)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 18.8¢	$62.7	$73.22	+$10.52	50% 32577-32115 (64692)
└ No leg	Noavg 18.8¢	$34.62	$43.39	+$8.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$28.08	$29.84	+$1.76
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$22.5	$25.11	+$2.6	54% 2548-2182 (4730)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$24.7	$23.28	-$1.43	54% 5999-5086 (11085)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$7,347.59

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$142.61

Record

49%

18384-18810 (37194)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,275.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$157.22

Record

58%

1599-1172 (2771)

Both legs:

Yes$1,803.5382.2¢-$157.22

No$472.3325¢-$0

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,080.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$123.41

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

RN1CTR

Invested

$442.84

Value

$427.39

PnL

-$15.45

Record

54%

55310-47345 (102655)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$273.48

Value

$300.01

PnL

+$26.53

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

Saber-greed

Yes

Invested

$216.14

Value

$218.78

PnL

+$2.65

Record

59%

2504-1737 (4241)

kleomarcus

Yes

Invested

$100.44

Value

$99.82

PnL

-$0.62

Record

63%

1646-987 (2633)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$62.7

Value

$73.22

PnL

+$10.52

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

Both legs:

Invested

$22.5

Value

$25.11

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

2548-2182 (4730)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$24.7

Value

$23.28

PnL

-$1.43

Record

54%

5999-5086 (11085)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.