Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Johor Darul Ta'zim vs. Port FC end in a draw?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 20¢ · $213 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$212.77
-$38.41
17¢ → 20¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $151.43 | $107.28 | -$44.15 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $40.48 | $40.38 | -$0.11 | 58% 1599-1172 (2771) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $464.71 | $33.7 | +$6.91 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $23.14 | $22.88 | -$0.26 | 54% 2548-2182 (4730) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $7.33 | $7.33 | -$0 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2 | $1.2 | -$0.8 | 54% 5999-5086 (11085) |
Invested
$151.43
Value
$107.28
PnL
-$44.15
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$40.48
Value
$40.38
PnL
-$0.11
Record
58%
1599-1172 (2771)
VeryLucky888Invested
$464.71
Value
$33.7
PnL
+$6.91
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.14
Value
$22.88
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
2548-2182 (4730)
Invested
$7.33
Value
$7.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
54%
5999-5086 (11085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.