Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United: O/U 2.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (85%) · Under at 44¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$364.59

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 44¢

-5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,068

Combined PnL-$152.42

Over2 traders

Total Value$382.23

Total Shares683

Combined PnL-$212.17

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$218.27	81% 2406-549 (2955)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$241.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$23.66
RN1CTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$140.1	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$34.88	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$789.11	$781.08	-$8.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$750.89	$724.04	-$26.85
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$143.29	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 53.1¢	$855.15	$725.35	-$129.79	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 87.1¢	$585.6	$376.63	-$208.97	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46¢	$326.6	$323.05	-$3.55	51% 1276-1209 (2485)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 46.2¢	$154.68	$143.96	-$10.72	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 60.9¢	$52.53	$42.75	-$9.78	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$20.25	$20.48	+$0.23	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$21.59	$16.1	-$5.49	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$9.8	$7.7	-$2.1	53% 1103-975 (2078)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 88¢	$8.8	$5.6	-$3.2	55% 8100-6542 (14642)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.2	-$0.55	50% 7643-7662 (15305)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$98.4	$1.57	+$12.52	58% 40747-29469 (70216)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,444.03

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$218.27

Record

81%

2406-549 (2955)

Both legs:

Over$1,999.9862¢-$241.93

Under$1,444.0444.8¢+$23.66

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,014.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$140.1

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$34.88

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

Both legs:

Over$789.1154¢-$8.03

Under$750.8948.2¢-$26.85

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,383.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$143.29

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$855.15

Value

$725.35

PnL

-$129.79

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$585.6

Value

$376.63

PnL

-$208.97

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$326.6

Value

$323.05

PnL

-$3.55

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$154.68

Value

$143.96

PnL

-$10.72

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.53

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$9.78

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.25

Value

$20.48

PnL

+$0.23

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.59

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$5.49

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$2.1

Record

53%

1103-975 (2078)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$3.2

Record

55%

8100-6542 (14642)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

7643-7662 (15305)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.4

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$12.52

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.