Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United: O/U 1.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 79¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$124.96

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 79¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares10,798

Combined PnL-$344.15

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares12,115

Combined PnL+$219.19

Over — 23%Under — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fakeky	Overavg 81.6¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	-$326.76	76% 38-12 (50)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 17.6¢	$688.73	$823.56	+$134.83	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
RN1CTR	Underavg 19.4¢	$749.29	$816.9	+$67.62	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 19.1¢	$386.07	$425.39	+$39.32	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 21.1¢	$316.37	$284.79	-$31.58	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 16.5¢	$113.47	$120.52	+$7.04	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 93.9¢	$132.56	$115.7	-$16.85	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 17.8¢	$99.99	$100.89	+$0.9	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$24.99	$26.46	+$1.47	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 83.3¢	$22.62	$7.09	-$0.54	55% 8100-6542 (14642)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 23.3¢	$3.38	$2.1	-$1.28	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$0.38	$1.35	+$0.97	59% 30074-20800 (50874)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$0.4	$0.29	-$0.11	51% 634-612 (1246)

fakeky

Over

Invested

$8,685.64

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$326.76

Record

76%

38-12 (50)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$688.73

Value

$823.56

PnL

+$134.83

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$749.29

Value

$816.9

PnL

+$67.62

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$386.07

Value

$425.39

PnL

+$39.32

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$316.37

Value

$284.79

PnL

-$31.58

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$113.47

Value

$120.52

PnL

+$7.04

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$132.56

Value

$115.7

PnL

-$16.85

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$99.99

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.99

Value

$26.46

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$22.62

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$0.54

Record

55%

8100-6542 (14642)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.38

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.97

Record

59%

30074-20800 (50874)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

634-612 (1246)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.