Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United: O/U 0.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$821.53

Total Shares853

Combined PnL-$28.73

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,880

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jackenxand	Overavg 99.9¢	$788.17	$788.57	+$0.39	97% 2562-88 (2650)
RN1CTR	Underavg 10.2¢	$137.13	$655.14	+$518.01	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 9.6¢	$99.38	$502.79	+$403.41	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 9.1¢	$62.04	$226.09	+$164.05	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 7.5¢	$18.52	$120.28	+$101.76	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 97¢	$42.68	$22.66	-$20.02	77% 3109-954 (4063)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 97¢	$19.4	$10.3	-$9.1	64% 993-564 (1557)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 3.5¢	$0.5	$6.89	+$6.39	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 11.9¢	$0.24	$0.97	+$0.73	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 9¢	$137.7	$0.76	-$136.94	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8.7¢	$22.79	$0.13	-$22.66	50% 12108-12315 (24423)

Jackenxand

Over

Invested

$788.17

Value

$788.57

PnL

+$0.39

Record

97%

2562-88 (2650)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$137.13

Value

$655.14

PnL

+$518.01

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$99.38

Value

$502.79

PnL

+$403.41

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$62.04

Value

$226.09

PnL

+$164.05

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$18.52

Value

$120.28

PnL

+$101.76

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$42.68

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$20.02

Record

77%

3109-954 (4063)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$19.4

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$9.1

Record

64%

993-564 (1557)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$6.39

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$137.7

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$136.94

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.79

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$22.66

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.