Will Gamba Osaka win on 2026-10-28?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 70¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 28

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 69.5¢

+11% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares14,601

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,945

Combined PnL-$169.29

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.1¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$157.69	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$147.62	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.2¢	$1.4K	$961.64	-$472.62
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$572.12	$897.12	+$325
RN1	Noavg 43.2¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$656.64	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 80.1¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	73% 1482-541 (2023)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 82.2¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	$-1.1K	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$631.28	$667.97	+$36.69	57% 1626-1207 (2833)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.5¢	$391.23	$438.74	+$47.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.7¢	$240.05	$229.23	-$10.82
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 54.7¢	$646.17	$348.39	-$297.78	65% 1210-654 (1864)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$190.46	$283.11	+$92.65	51% 634-612 (1246)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 42.1¢	$152.17	$265.27	+$113.1	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$227.2	$220.1	-$7.1	51% 1276-1209 (2485)
LZ lzh1	Noavg 42¢	$188.97	$188.97	-$0	43% 451-602 (1053)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$100.67	$118.52	+$17.85	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
FO foooool	Noavg 38.9¢	$108.04	$116.62	+$8.58	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
PA pauleta23CTR	Yesavg 44¢	$79.06	$104.15	+$25.09	67% 23102-11503 (34605)
poshposh	Noavg 61.6¢	$148.42	$101.21	-$47.21	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$38.85	$57.98	+$19.13	81% 2406-549 (2955)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6¢	$3.48	$33.63	+$30.15
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$35.37	$24.35	-$11.02
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 39.4¢	$19.08	$20.27	+$1.19	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$14	+$4.6	54% 6046-5125 (11171)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 40¢	$8	$8.4	+$0.4	52% 5870-5504 (11374)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,496.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$157.69

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,006.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$147.62

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

Both legs:

Yes$1,434.2646.2¢-$472.62

No$572.1244¢+$325

RN1

Invested

$1,189.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$656.64

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

Rocky31

Invested

$2,988.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

73%

1482-541 (2023)

ARocky33

Invested

$2,259.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$631.28

Value

$667.97

PnL

+$36.69

Record

57%

1626-1207 (2833)

Both legs:

No$391.2337.5¢+$47.51

Yes$240.0560.7¢-$10.82

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$646.17

Value

$348.39

PnL

-$297.78

Record

65%

1210-654 (1864)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.46

Value

$283.11

PnL

+$92.65

Record

51%

634-612 (1246)

SnakeBall

Invested

$152.17

Value

$265.27

PnL

+$113.1

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$227.2

Value

$220.1

PnL

-$7.1

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

lzh1

Invested

$188.97

Value

$188.97

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

451-602 (1053)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.67

Value

$118.52

PnL

+$17.85

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

foooool

Invested

$108.04

Value

$116.62

PnL

+$8.58

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

pauleta23CTR

Yes

Invested

$79.06

Value

$104.15

PnL

+$25.09

Record

67%

23102-11503 (34605)

poshposh

Invested

$148.42

Value

$101.21

PnL

-$47.21

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Invested

$38.85

Value

$57.98

PnL

+$19.13

Record

81%

2406-549 (2955)

Both legs:

Yes$3.486¢+$30.15

No$35.3761¢-$11.02

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$14

PnL

+$4.6

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.