Will Gamba Osaka vs. Buriram United end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$47.21
79.8¢ → 68.5¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$95.78 | 73% 1482-541 (2023) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 75¢ | $604.48 | $538.96 | -$65.52 | 57% 1626-1207 (2833) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $295.27 | $380.74 | +$85.47 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74.1¢ | $291.45 | $269.29 | -$22.16 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $133.31 | $181.57 | +$48.26 | 54% 55709-47794 (103503) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $58.81 | $60.77 | +$1.96 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $48.41 | $51.47 | +$3.05 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $25.81 | $26.19 | +$0.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $22.61 | $25.28 | +$2.67 | |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $4.65 | $5 | +$0.35 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.54 | $1.73 | +$0.19 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1 | $1.01 | +$0.02 | 50% 12108-12315 (24423) |
Invested
$1,177.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$95.78
Record
73%
1482-541 (2023)
oieshfn345Invested
$604.48
Value
$538.96
PnL
-$65.52
Record
57%
1626-1207 (2833)
Invested
$295.27
Value
$380.74
PnL
+$85.47
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$291.45
Value
$269.29
PnL
-$22.16
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
RN1CTRInvested
$133.31
Value
$181.57
PnL
+$48.26
Record
54%
55709-47794 (103503)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58.81
Value
$60.77
PnL
+$1.96
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$48.41
Value
$51.47
PnL
+$3.05
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.35
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.54
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.19
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
12108-12315 (24423)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.