Will Buriram United win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 56¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 28

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$147.03

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 56.5¢

-19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares12,470

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares8,314

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 71.4¢	$6.1K	$5.2K	-$898.07	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$1.9K	$3.1K	+$1.2K	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$641.22	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.8¢	$839	$1.6K	+$746.44
└ No leg	Noavg 68.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$105.22
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$143.18	57% 1626-1207 (2833)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.8¢	$827.45	$974.62	+$147.17
└ No leg	Noavg 59.7¢	$365.46	$361.47	-$3.99
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$34.25	50% 12108-12315 (24423)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 80.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$291.96	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 63¢	$907.2	$900	-$7.2	51% 1276-1209 (2485)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$149.4	$251.05	+$101.65	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.3¢	$75.59	$176.03	+$100.44
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$73.81	$75.02	+$1.21
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$155.32	$232.22	+$76.91	50% 32771-32328 (65099)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.7¢	$72.88	$153.35	+$80.47
└ No leg	Noavg 59.1¢	$82.44	$78.87	-$3.56
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 48.1¢	$124.89	$146.6	+$21.71	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$55.92	$118.25	+$62.33	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Noavg 47¢	$102.68	$114.09	+$11.41	81% 2406-549 (2955)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$49.06	$57.62	+$8.56
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$53.62	$56.48	+$2.85
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 55.5¢	$114.46	$104.19	-$10.27	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$22.44	$27.07	+$4.63	55% 8100-6542 (14642)
AR ARocky33CTR	Yesavg 49.8¢	$663.92	$3.62	-$158.64	76% 3921-1243 (5164)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$1.85	$2	+$0.15	54% 6046-5125 (11171)

RN1

Invested

$6,098.28

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$898.07

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,899.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$2,124.2

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$641.22

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

Both legs:

Yes$83919.8¢+$746.44

No$1,285.268.1¢-$105.22

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,192.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$143.18

Record

57%

1626-1207 (2833)

Both legs:

Yes$827.4534.8¢+$147.17

No$365.4659.7¢-$3.99

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,169.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.25

Record

50%

12108-12315 (24423)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,449.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$291.96

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$907.2

Value

$900

PnL

-$7.2

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$149.4

Value

$251.05

PnL

+$101.65

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Both legs:

Yes$75.5916.3¢+$100.44

No$73.8161¢+$1.21

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$155.32

Value

$232.22

PnL

+$76.91

Record

50%

32771-32328 (65099)

Both legs:

Yes$72.8820.7¢+$80.47

No$82.4459.1¢-$3.56

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$124.89

Value

$146.6

PnL

+$21.71

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$55.92

Value

$118.25

PnL

+$62.33

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Invested

$102.68

Value

$114.09

PnL

+$11.41

Record

81%

2406-549 (2955)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.46

Value

$104.19

PnL

-$10.27

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.44

Value

$27.07

PnL

+$4.63

Record

55%

8100-6542 (14642)

ARocky33CTR

Yes

Invested

$663.92

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$158.64

Record

76%

3921-1243 (5164)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

6046-5125 (11171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.