Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-27?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 75¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 27

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$81.08

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 75¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares25,367

Combined PnL+$180.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,281

Combined PnL-$99.86

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 64¢	$8.7K	$8.9K	+$204.96	49% 127-134 (261)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68.9¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$10	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68.5¢	$4.5K	$3.2K	-$116.06	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$100	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63¢	$441.46	$521.69	+$80.23	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
poshposh	Noavg 67¢	$389.68	$410.04	+$20.36	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 71¢	$142	$141	-$1	51% 1192-1127 (2319)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$52.7	$53.47	+$0.77	50% 11935-12084 (24019)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$46.97	$48.35	+$1.37	63% 1045-602 (1647)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$41.58	$40.95	-$0.63	50% 182-179 (361)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66¢	$15.85	$16.93	+$1.08	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$8,667.42

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$204.96

Record

49%

127-134 (261)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,602.46

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,472.44

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$116.06

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$441.46

Value

$521.69

PnL

+$80.23

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

poshposh

Invested

$389.68

Value

$410.04

PnL

+$20.36

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$142

Value

$141

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

1192-1127 (2319)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.7

Value

$53.47

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

11935-12084 (24019)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$48.35

PnL

+$1.37

Record

63%

1045-602 (1647)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.58

Value

$40.95

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

182-179 (361)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.85

Value

$16.93

PnL

+$1.08

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.