Daejeon Citizen FC vs. Vissel Kobe: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 27

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$241.83

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares15,508

Combined PnL-$361.8

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,558

Combined PnL+$119.97

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Kelvin789	Underavg 51.8¢	$7.7K	$7.4K	-$348.48	46% 59-68 (127)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$960	$1.0K	+$30	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$510	+$25	47% 2366-2637 (5003)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$485	$460.55	+$32.07	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 46¢	$305.42	$338.31	+$32.89	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 50.7¢	$310.48	$297.19	-$13.3	50% 24100-23732 (47832)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	54% 2548-2180 (4728)

Kelvin789

Under

Invested

$7,719

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$348.48

Record

46%

59-68 (127)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$960

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$510

PnL

+$25

Record

47%

2366-2637 (5003)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$485

Value

$460.55

PnL

+$32.07

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$305.42

Value

$338.31

PnL

+$32.89

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$310.48

Value

$297.19

PnL

-$13.3

Record

50%

24100-23732 (47832)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.