Daejeon Citizen FC vs. Vissel Kobe: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$56.8

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 99.5¢

+70% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$867.58

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL+$102.06

Over2 traders

Total Value$221.07

Total Shares696

Combined PnL-$45.26

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 76¢	$386.32	$427.03	+$40.7	72% 2220-850 (3070)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 40.2¢	$98.6	$191.53	+$92.92	59% 29916-20638 (50554)
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Overavg 33.5¢	$200	$152.26	-$47.74	25% 90-269 (359)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 80.7¢	$186.2	$142.33	-$43.87	81% 2374-544 (2918)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 67¢	$66.33	$68.8	+$2.47	50% 32577-32115 (64692)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 31¢	$47	$46.24	-$0.76	63% 1045-602 (1647)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$17.39	$29.95	+$12.56	60% 9071-5989 (15060)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 30¢	$24	$24.4	+$0.4	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 30¢	$6	$6.1	+$0.1	49% 18384-18810 (37194)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$386.32

Value

$427.03

PnL

+$40.7

Record

72%

2220-850 (3070)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$98.6

Value

$191.53

PnL

+$92.92

Record

59%

29916-20638 (50554)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$152.26

PnL

-$47.74

Record

25%

90-269 (359)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$186.2

Value

$142.33

PnL

-$43.87

Record

81%

2374-544 (2918)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.33

Value

$68.8

PnL

+$2.47

Record

50%

32577-32115 (64692)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$46.24

PnL

-$0.76

Record

63%

1045-602 (1647)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$17.39

Value

$29.95

PnL

+$12.56

Record

60%

9071-5989 (15060)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$24

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

18384-18810 (37194)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.